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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.