Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean figure of daily murders each month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official figures. However, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to signal better countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, adding that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it may obscure days when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.