A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
