Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
