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Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.